Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at HVN Regional - CM Dunedin
decks
3
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
11-6-1
overall winrate
63.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
56.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1417
· median 1393
· range 1317–1542
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1189
Q3 1399
1558
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.9% | +8.1 |
| Wind Allies | 11.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -3.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.1% | -2.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Fractal | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
